empty
23.12.2024 04:05 AM
Trading Recommendations and Review of EUR/USD on 23; The Euro May Fall on Monday

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair rose on Friday, a movement barely aligned with the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. Recall that the day's most important reports — the PCE Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — were rather lackluster. For example, the PCE Index value for November in annual terms came in at 2.8% against a forecast of 2.9%, unchanged from October. What does this indicate? Essentially, nothing — the index remained flat. Similarly, the Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 71.8 to 74.0, which matched expectations. In any case, an increase in this metric should have strengthened the US dollar rather than weakening it. We believe that Friday's macroeconomic backdrop had no real influence on traders' sentiment.

The rise in the pair was purely technical. According to the current technical picture on the hourly timeframe, the price failed several times to breach the 1.0340–1.0366 area, correcting toward the critical line. On Monday, the price may rebound from this line, leading to a new decline to the 1.0340–1.0366 area. The more attempts are made to break this area, the higher the likelihood it will eventually be breached. We still believe the euro should continue to decline. The only caveat is that a flat or weak volatility may occur during the holiday week.

In the 5-minute timeframe, the price formed two signals on Friday. First, it rebounded from the 1.0340–1.0366 area, allowing traders to open long positions. By the end of the day, the price tested the Kijun-sen line but failed to break it. While opening shorts at that point was an option, doing so right before the weekend is generally not ideal. However, short positions could be considered on Monday.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, dated December 17, shows a clear trend. The net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time, but bears have gained the upper hand. Two months ago, the number of open short positions by professional traders surged, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time. This indicates that the euro is now sold more often than bought.

We continue to see no fundamental factors supporting the euro's growth, and technical analysis points to price consolidation — essentially, a flat market. On the weekly timeframe, it is evident that since December 2022, the pair has been trading within the 1.0448–1.1274 range. Therefore, further declines remain more likely. A break below 1.0448 would open new opportunities for a deeper fall.

The red and blue lines on the COT chart have crossed and changed their relative positions, signaling a bearish market trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-commercial group decreased by 4,700, while shorts decreased by 14,400. As a result, the net position increased by almost 10,000, but this does not alter the overall bearish trend.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The pair completed a three-week correction on the hourly timeframe and resumed its downward movement. Given the Federal Reserve's extremely hawkish stance, we believe the decline can continue calmly in the coming days. The Fed may reduce rates only 1–2 times in 2025, much more hawkish than the market already priced in. We still believe there are no grounds for a significant rise in the euro.

For December 23, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.0269, 1.0340–1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0541) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0440). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

No significant events or reports are scheduled in either the Eurozone or the United States on Monday. Thus, we do not expect strong movements. The price may gradually drift back toward the 1.0340–1.0366 area.

Illustration Explanations:

Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Key areas where price movement might stall. Not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the hourly chart, serving as strong levels.

Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Points where the price has previously rebounded. They can serve as trading signal sources.

Yellow Lines: Trendlines, channels, or other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Reflects the net position size of each trader category.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U.A. de 9 de janeiro (análise das negociações da manhã)

Na minha previsão da manhã, destaquei o nível 1,2265 e fiz planos para tomar decisões de negociação com base nele. Vamos examinar o gráfico de 5 minutos para analisar

Miroslaw Bawulski 20:19 2025-01-09 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação e análise do EUR/USD em 9 de janeiro: Outra surpresa para o dólar

Na quarta-feira, o par EUR/USD registrou outra queda significativa. Embora a queda não tenha sido tão acentuada quanto a do GBP/USD, o euro segue em baixa pelo segundo dia consecutivo

Paolo Greco 14:53 2025-01-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U.A. de 8 de janeiro (análise das negociações da manhã)

Na minha previsão da manhã, foquei no nível 1,0341 e planejei tomar decisões de negociação com base nele. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos e analisar

Miroslaw Bawulski 20:31 2025-01-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U. de 20 de dezembro (revisão das negociações da manhã). A libra se recuperou ligeiramente

Em minha previsão matinal, destaquei o nível 1,2526 como um ponto-chave para entrar no mercado. Observando o gráfico de 5 minutos, a libra subiu, mas não testou 1,2526

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:22 2024-12-20 UTC+2

Como negociar o par GBP/USD em 19 de dezembro? Dicas simples e análise de negociação para iniciantes

Análise das negociações de quarta-feira Gráfico 1H do GBP/USD Na quarta-feira, o par GBP/USD registrou uma queda acentuada devido ao aumento repentino do sentimento hawkish na Reserva Federal. Conforme mencionado

Paolo Greco 13:52 2024-12-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD: 18 de dezembro - Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U. (Análise das negociações da manhã). A inflação da zona do euro continua a cair

Em minha previsão da manhã, destaquei o nível 1,0506 como um ponto-chave de decisão para a entrada no mercado. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos para entender

Miroslaw Bawulski 21:00 2024-12-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Plano de Negociação para a Sessão dos E.U. de 18 de dezembro (Revisão das Negociações da Manhã). A libra sobe após o aumento da inflação

Em minha previsão matinal, destaquei 1,2695 como um nível-chave para decisões de entrada no mercado. Vamos analisar o gráfico de 5 minutos para entender o resultado. Embora tenha ocorrido

Miroslaw Bawulski 20:47 2024-12-18 UTC+2

Como negociar o par GBP/USD em 18 de dezembro? Dicas simples e análise de negociação para iniciantes

Análise das negociações de terça-feira Gráfico de 1H do GBP/USD O par GBP/USD continuou seu movimento de alta na terça-feira, iniciado na segunda-feira. Ontem, o mercado teve motivos válidos para

Paolo Greco 14:53 2024-12-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U.A. de 17 de dezembro (análise das negociações da manhã)

Na minha previsão para a manhã, observei o nível de 1,0506 e planejei tomar decisões de negociação a partir daí. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos

Miroslaw Bawulski 21:18 2024-12-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Plano de negociação para a sessão dos E.U.A de 17 de dezembro (análise das negociações da manhã). A libra subiu após dados do mercado de trabalho

Na minha previsão da manhã, fiquei atento ao nível de 1,2665 e planejei tomar decisões de negociação a partir daí. Vamos dar uma olhada no gráfico de 5 minutos

Miroslaw Bawulski 19:08 2024-12-17 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.