empty
28.03.2025 09:19 AM
Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on April 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but yesterday's developments showed that the market continues to ignore the majority of data releases. Only a handful of reports are lucky enough

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 24: Didn't work out? So be it...

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to avoid a substantial decline, although the day before, it seemed that a downtrend was finally beginning. However, the market quickly bounced back

Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 24: Is it really about Powell?

The EUR/USD currency pair refrained from continuing its decline on Wednesday. As the saying goes, "Everything in moderation." The dollar gained around 200 pips on Tuesday, which shouldn't scare anyone

Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Kiwi Has a Decent Chance to Continue Rising

Inflation in New Zealand in Q1 came in slightly above expectations, rising from 2.2% to 2.5% year-over-year. This was mainly due to the goods sector, while core inflation is slowing

Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Pound Holds On, but a Reversal Is Near

Inflationary pressure in the UK is gradually easing but remains elevated. In March, the core index fell from 3.5% to 3.4% year-over-year, while the headline CPI dropped from 2.8%

Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Euro Takes a Hit Below the Belt

There will be no winners in trade wars. The U.S. will suffer due to a loss of trust in the dollar and other American assets, while Europe will suffer from

Marek Petkovich 00:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/JPY pair is retreating from the psychological level of 190.00, or a two-week high reached earlier today. Following disappointing UK PMI data, selling pressure has intensified, pulling spot prices

Irina Yanina 18:16 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Market walks through minefield

If the market can rally this much on hints from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about de-escalation in the trade conflict with China, imagine how high the S&P 500 could jump

Marek Petkovich 12:35 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Likelihood of a Euro Reversal to the South Is Increasing

As expected, the ECB cut all key interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. At this meeting, no new staff projections were released, and given

Kuvat Raharjo 12:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Markets Await a Massive Rally if the U.S. Starts Real Negotiations with China (There is a likelihood of continued growth in #NDX and Ethereum)

A new wave of euphoria has swept through the markets. Many believe it's not a coincidence: take everything away from a person and then provide them with even the smallest

Pati Gani 09:03 2025-04-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.